Let’s, for a moment, assume all the problems the US has, that are swimming around in my head are solved. Where do we go from here? What is the future going to look like? One of the concepts I learned in high school is exponential compounding. After awhile things start getting big faster as time goes on. People tend to ignore the long-term implications of this. They think, for example, a company growing at a 15% annual rate will continue forever. I did a little math. At 15% annual rate, compounded, the smallest company on the S&P500 would equal the entire US GDP in 61 years. This obviously can’t happen. The current mindset is for growth, in constant year dollars, in the GDP of 3% per year. This means in 14 years; the GDP will be 50% higher than it is today. Unless we are just going to make big piles of stuff, these goods and services must be consumed. A great deal of this output will require the use of physical resources.

Can we, as consumers, consume 50% faster than we are today? Do we need to? Are we preparing ourselves for the inevitable change? The answer to these questions is NO. Are there better ways to use our lives? YES.

As AI and robots take over an increasing portion of the workload, we must make adjustments. The requirements for people to do physical work is going to decrease. One option is to reduce the traditional work week. A lot of work will need to be done to arrive at a proper mix. Shorter days, shorter work weeks, rotating schedules, and other ideas we don’t even perceive yet.

The future will inevitably look different. I think it will evolve towards a “Trekkie” type civilization. If we survive, the future will have eliminated poverty and uncertainty about how we are going to live the next day.

There is more to say about this, but that will have to wait for another day. This topic will never be exhausted.

SOCIETY: A group of people broadly distinguished from other groups by mutual interests, participation in characteristic relationships, shared institutions, and a common culture.

I posit, for the purpose of this paper, that the US is one large society. I don’t believe that is a difficult concept to embrace. Society provides us with many benefits. We have people we can trade with, socialize, mate, support, and many other things. Not everyone in society possesses the same intelligence, common sense, opportunities, and luck. The opportunity to become wealthy or otherwise successful is “paid” by those less fortunate. The wealthy and successful have a duty to pay this debt. The greater the wealth, the greater the debt. This is certainly not to say they owe everything, but the debt is great.

I saw a Tweet this morning advocating for affordable healthcare. I think this is wrong. Healthcare should be free. Its cost is part of the debt owed by the fortunate. Most of the cost is already covered, there is just some restructuring required. This extends to many things: climate change mitigation, education, poverty, and many other issues. In populations where these issued have been addressed at a level higher than in the US, the people are generally happier and experience less stress in their life.

The current trajectory of the US is to create as much stress and unhappiness as possible. We must reverse this trend. Unfortunately, in many cases, this will require a heavy hand of the federal government. I realized this will upset many, until we show the ability to do this without intervention, it’s the only way. The other option is to keep sliding into the abyss and the ensuing darkness that will envelope us.

I just finished reading “American Manifesto: Saving Democracy from Villains, Vandals, and Ourselves” by Bob Garfield. Garfield is a lifetime journalist. As such, the story is from the perspective of a journalist, largely chronicling how the evolution of journalism and the internet have affected our lives. One of the points or theories he makes is a large portion of the problems we face is the result of increasing identity of various groups and belonging to them. It doesn’t matter what the group is: LGBTQ+, Jewish, BLM, Feminist, or any other. This has grown because of the growth of the internet. What this does is make it easier for people not a member of the group to blame the group for any perceived problem. This increases the polarization of the country. This tendency is exacerbated by the business practices of companies like Facebook (META) and Google.

Various legislation might help with this, but it is a problem that will be with us for a long time. This works both ways. The left and right are each more likely to see the other as the root of their problem. I can see some of this in my own thinking. None of us are immune.

At the end, he tries to give some solutions to the problems. I see his solutions as weak. We need strong, well thought solutions. Unfortunately, we are asking the problem to self-correct. I don’t see that happening soon. There is too much money involved in the internet and the solutions would call for restructuring some of that. Other things need to happen first. We have a classic cart and horse problem.

The one thing, I think, both Democrats and Republicans can agree on is politically the country is deeply divided. I have read a few books and blog posts purporting to explain this and why it is so hard to effect change. They all have different opinions and reasons. After thinking about it some, I have concluded they are all valid explanations. The problem is incredibly complex. I am not going to list them here because knowing isn’t going to change them.

There is hope. I did read a study, that sounded plausible, the there is a slow drift in demographics towards a population that is more progressive. Mostly because white males will make up a decreasing percentage of the population. The study also stated that the factors that tend to cause people to get more conservative as they get older are less prevalent. These are factors such as home ownership and starting a family. The fact that more people are struggling just to make ends meet means that more people are seeking help. Normally, when people reach around forty, their political leanings are getting locked in. That the things that cause conservatism haven’t really kicked in increases the likelihood their political outlook will remain progressive or at least moderate. The forecast is in eight to ten years, this will be locked in. We can only hope.

Book review time.

I have just finished reading the book “Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness” by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein. It is about how the presenter of choices influences the choices by how they are presented. The first example is a buffet line. It is intuitive that putting salads and vegetables first and desserts last will generally result in people making heathier choices. They then go through a series of choice packages of increasing complexity up to Medicare part D and selecting a retirement plan offered by your employer.

Much of the information is useful and informative, but when they start talking about the ethics, philosophy, and politics of it all, I believe their thinking reflects a republicanism of forty years ago and isn’t inline with current needs. Their thinking on climate change, for a book written in 2008, is distressing. I also disagree with their approach to education.

Despite the usefulness of the information in the book, I hesitate to recommend it due to the flaws it contains. I would hate to see anyone influenced by this. Just my opinion.

One of my favorite pieces of music by Hans Zimmer is: Why so Serious? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjJnWuA7-ps

Today is not serious. I love to read quotes, much to the chagrin of Mark Twain who thought quoting others demonstrated a lack of thinking. Two by him that mirrors our times: “There are basically two types of people. People who accomplish things, and people who claim to have accomplished things. The first group is less crowded”. “It’s no wonder truth is stranger than fiction. Fiction has to make sense”.

I ran across this passage by C S Lewis the other day:

Alice: “would you tell me, which way I should go from here?” “That all depends a good deal on where you want to get to,” said the Cat. “I don’t much care where—” said Alice. “then it doesn’t matter which way you go,” said the Cat. “—so long as I get SOMEWHERE,” Alice added as an explanation. “Oh, you’re sure to do that,” said the Cat, “if only you walk long enough.”

Two from Eminem: “the truth is you don’t know what is going to happen tomorrow. Life is a crazy ride, and nothing is guaranteed”. “A lot of truth is said in jest”.

A little poem in closing:

Who knows the source of the next thought

When it comes, play it to the end

Philosophy is what you make it to be

Science is not a straight path

When we are standing knee deep in the muck

Truth is calling with an uncertain voice

Beckoning us out of the abyss

Shining its diamond light

Leading us through the infinity of life

Often, I feel like the US and in general the rest of the world is like Sisyphus pushing that rock up the hill, except there is more than one needing to be balanced at the same time. It is a labor destined to go for a very long time, even with a great deal of cooperation.

The biggest problem, and the only one in which we all die if we don’t solve it is: Climate Change. One time, when I was part of a negotiating team, our leader stated we were approaching issues with surgical scalpels when we should be using a meat axe. That is where the world is now, indeed there is no shortage of scientists who state it may already be too late. We can’t continue fiddling while the world literally burns down around us. Most politicians, especially in the US are afraid to propose anything that might inconvenience someone. We have demonstrated we can address huge problems it we set to it. Witness the moon landing in 1969, directed effort of production in response to WWII or the development of the covid-19 vaccine in 2020. This is the type of effort the US must engage in and lead the rest of the world.

Of course, the biggest problem and contributor to global warming is the consumption of fossil fuels. We must set out a timeline for the elimination of their usage. Then we must deduct three years from that timeline and make it happen, no games or sleight of hand. Yes, there will be some economic disruption. That will be the price of admission to the year 2050. There is so much selfishness and greed at play. We must roll over these things. The smart people will figure out a way to lead a good life and lead the way.

One of the problems with writing about politics, in the style I want to, is including everything I consider relevant. I’m not working from an outline, which maybe I should. In my post on Constitutional reform, I neglected to mention State’s Rights. Basically, the tenth Amendment to the Constitution states any power or right not specifically addressed in the Constitution is left to the individual states to administer as they see fit. In theory this is a good method. In practice, what happens is the country ends up with a hodge-podge of laws that are inconsistent and, in many cases, not especially functional when the actual collective good of the population is considered. To name just a few areas: education, resource management, public health, infrastructure, utility availability, dealing with climate change, and the list goes on.

Many things would be better addressed on a national level that are currently addressed on a state or local level. I will be addressing some of these issues and a method for implementing change needs to be available.

I have received a couple of comments requesting some discussion on my RV life. I did spend two other periods of my life living in an RV. The first was about 25 years ago and it only lasted about six months. I have few memories of this other than it wasn’t the best experience of my life. The entire time I was stationary. The next experience was after my second divorce. This was a matter of convenience, as I happened to already have an RV, and I lived in one place for a total of three and a half years. Totally unremarkable. That brings us to this experience. It started in March of 2022. The original plan was to start in April, but things happened faster than planned. As a result, many mistakes were made. I felt like I spent the first 5-6 months in a blender. Things are coming into the normal realm now and I am starting to make some actual plans. As has been plainly pointed out to me: “life is what happens when you are making other plans”. I feel fortunate my personality allows me to roll with the punches.

I am currently hanging out on the Oregon Coast. One of the things I have learned is home is where you want it to be. That’s where you belong. I belong to a camping club that has numerous sites available on both coasts. According to the terms of membership, I must move at least every 21 days. I can go back to a park I have been in after 7 days. The 3 parks I have selected for my current rotation are heavily wooded. According to Lucy Jones’ book “Losing Eden”, this is the healthiest environment, both physically and mentally. I just seems to suit me at this point in my life. I have joined two library systems, so I always have books and videos available to me. One of the life skills necessary for this life is how to do with less physical things. I believe I have adapted to this well and in the process of donating as much as possible to Habitat and Goodwill.

This will be a landmark post because I am attempting to include my first picture. Its the desk I mentioned in an earlier post that makes my writing life simpler. Simple thing for most people. The desk was made from scraps of plywood I had in storage from disassembling a previous desk.

The US Constitution has been the overriding law of the land for over 230 years. It has been amended 27 times. The Amendment process is slow and cumbersome. This may be by design. In my opinion, many aspects of the Constitution have become unwieldy and hold overs from a no longer relevant era.

I have some thoughts for reform, which I will present here. This list is not meant to be exhaustive.

• The ERA must be ratified. It is about 200 years overdue. I looked online and its status is a hot mess. We need to fix this. I don’t know if this would provide a permanent fix for the Dobbs decision, which also needs to be fixed
• The electoral college must be eliminated. Everything must be by popular vote. That is the easiest type of Democracy to understand. If it wasn’t for the electoral college, we wouldn’t be in the mess we are now in.
• Supreme Court reform: The number of justices should always be the number of district courts. The number of district courts should always be an odd number. When the number of district courts is expanded, the expansion of the number of Supreme Court justices should be adjusted automatically. There should be term limits. The term should be the number of district courts in years with one new justice appointed each year. The terms of the existing justices would be adjusted based on the number of years served in descending order to coincide with the one appointment per year schedule. In the case of resignation due to illness or whatever, an appointment would be made to fill the unexpired term. In either case, at the end of the term, if its warranted, the justice can be renominated for another term, going through the full vetting process. As part of any vetting process, candidates must release five years of tax returns and financial statements, to be thoroughly scrutinized by the FBI and Forensic accountants. A viable system of ethics review and recusal must be set to prevent conflicts and the integrity of the court. The appointments would become effective, coincident with the retirements, on June 1 of each year. In the event of a resignation, the current president shall nominate the replacement if they are of the same party as the president who nominated the retiree or there is more than six months left in the term of the current president and the appointment will become effective as soon as confirmed.
• Senate reform: All rules of the type as the filibuster must be abolished forever. It doesn’t make sense in a democracy. The whole structure of the Senate is anti-democratic. States such as South Dakota and Wyoming should not have the same influence as states such as California, New York, and Pennsylvania. I would like to see the Senate go away completely, but that’s not going to happen so aggregating their vote with the house on bills would cut down on the unfairness.
• Second Amendment reform: The Second Amendment was created to make foreign powers think twice about invading a country weakened from a bloody revolution. Elimination of assault weapons and high-capacity magazines aren’t going to change that. The Second needs some clarification to become a reasonable law of the land. Its purpose would be served with 25% of the weapons currently available. What country would attack the largest defense budget in the world?